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Central New York faces a potentially dangerous weather day on Monday (March 16) as severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes are expected to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The National Weather Service has placed much of Central New York under a "slight risk" for severe weather on Monday, with the greatest threat occurring from afternoon into early evening, according to syracuse.com. The region is part of a larger severe weather outbreak stretching across more than a dozen states in the eastern United States.
Before the severe weather arrives, residents experienced a volatile period beginning Sunday evening. A wind advisory remained in effect from 5 p.m. Sunday through 8 a.m. Monday, as reported by silive.com, with southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected across Yates, Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Steuben, Schuyler, Tompkins, Madison and Cortland counties.
The gusty winds were accompanied by a dramatic temperature surge on Monday, with readings climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s. An initial batch of rain showers associated with a warm front moved through late Sunday night into early Monday morning, clearing by 8 a.m. Monday.
The primary severe weather threat on Monday afternoon centers on a line of thunderstorms that will sweep west to east across Central New York. The main hazards include damaging winds, though forecasters cannot rule out a few embedded tornadoes within the line. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the Central New York region under a "marginal risk" for excessive rainfall, as thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours. This could produce localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas and locations with poor drainage.
The severe storm system is part of what meteorologists are calling a "Triple-Threat March Megastorm" moving across the United States, as detailed by AccuWeather. More than 520,000 customers were without power across the country Monday morning, with the bulk of the outages in Michigan. The storm has generated over 300 reports of severe weather since Sunday afternoon, with most involving wind damage.
Behind Monday's cold front, a dramatic temperature crash will usher in much colder air Monday night, with temperatures plummeting into the teens and low 20s. This rapid cooling will trigger a flash freeze Monday night, with any remaining moisture on roadways expected to quickly ice over, creating potentially hazardous conditions for the Tuesday morning commute.
Lake effect snow will develop on Tuesday as winds shift, with several inches possible along the New York Thruway corridor Tuesday night. Tuesday will bring unseasonably cold conditions, with high temperatures reaching only the mid 20s across Central New York. Overnight lows Tuesday night will drop into the single digits to mid-teens.
Lake effect snow showers will gradually diminish on Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region, with highs rebounding to the 30s. More seasonable temperatures will return Thursday and Friday, with readings climbing back to the 40s, closer to normal for mid-March.
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